Coronavirus Episode 10: How Long Will the Shutdown Last?

By /

Receive a Regenexx® Patient Info Packet by email and learn why it's a superior regenerative solution.

By submitting the form, you are agreeing that you read and consent to our Privacy Policy. We may also contact you via email, phone, and other electronic means to communicate information about our products and services. We do not sell, or share your information to third party vendors. Your submitted information is used only for the purposes of providing you with information about Regenexx.

This week, more and more states shut down all non-essential businesses. Many small businesses are struggling and the ripple effect of shutting down a large stretch of the economy will last for quite some time. So how long will this lockdown last? Will it be 15 days? Longer? How much longer? We can use data from China and Italy to answer that question.

Our 15 Day Shutdown

Right now, we’ve been told that we need to shut down for 15 days. However, every state is issuing slightly different orders (1). Some closed their schools early, some later. Some of our states closed businesses before others.

Some states are hinting that the shut down may last longer. If you read between the lines, some orders or news stories say weeks, others months. However, to business owners and employees alike, that little detail of weeks or months is a very BIG deal.

The Italy Data

First, pray for those in Italy. However, Italy is probably a good model for looking at the short-term effects of a shutdown on new cases. Here is their data:

Italy closed it all down about 8 days ago. In fact, their country-wide order was more severe than ours is right now as a country. That’s because the US has states which are the ones with the powers to quarantine or give orders to close businesses. However, let’s say that our country gets to the same place in the next day or two.

Note that since country-wide shutdown measures have been in place, Italy has not yet reached its peak in cases in 8 days. So that doesn’t bode well for our 15-day shutdown.

The China Data

China is a tough one to use as a model. First, there’s still some distrust of whether the data they’re reporting is accurate. When the central propaganda department of the Chinese communist party puts out a book about China’s successes against the coronavirus, titled “A Battle Against Epidemic: China Combating COVID-19 in 2020″, it doesn’t inspire confidence (2). So let’s dig in to find out more.

The first cases in Wuhan of unknown viral pneumonia were on December 31st, 2019 and their first death was on Jan 11th (3). At that time there were “dozens of cases”. However, the graph below from Worldmeter doesn’t list cases that early, in fact it begins in late January. The Johns Hopkins resource center reports similar data (4). Wuhan, the source of the outbreak, was closed down on January, 23rd.

Note that China began shutdown measures in Wuhan when THEIR report of cases to the outside world was small, but we really don’t know that to be true. They certainly could have had hundreds of cases earlier. However, if we use the data we have, it took them 8 weeks to get to the point where their economy was partially back up and running. In addition, that’s the beginning of starting back up, as restaurants are still required to operate at 50% capacity.

Other Models?

Regrettably, other countries like Germany (which just shut down) or South Korea, which has a totally different and more aggressive model, don’t apply to the US. Hence all we really have are these two.

So What’s the Bottom Line?

Here’s what I can surmise:

  1. We were likely not as efficient as China in curbing the spread of the virus. That makes sense as China has a central state authority. In addition, China has dealt with multiple SARS outbreaks before.
  2. We imposed our shutdown at about the same time or less quickly than Italy. At the time of their shut down, Italy had about 2,500 cases. The US is about 5 and a half times the size of Italy. If you assume our shutdown date as today, we have about 20K cases. If you scale Italy to the US, they shut down at the US equivalent of about 14,ooo cases. However, comparing these two is tough, as parts of the US shut down earlier. In addition, the US has been poor so far at coronavirus testing.

So my best-educated guess is that we’re looking at about a 2-3 month shutdown period. We’ll also know more in the next few weeks. If Italy can plateau out in the next week, that may mean our shut down will be shorter.

What Could Shorten Our Shutdown?

There could be things that make our shutdown shorter. For example, we may benefit from some of the drugs that have been tried in China. Scientists are working hard to create and scale SARS-CoV-2 antibodies for healthcare workers to use. We’re also entering the months where respiratory virus are less efficient at spreading.

The upshot? On the short side, I would expect 2 months of shut down. On the longer side, 3 months or more. The idea that this is just going to be 15 days is NOT supported by the data we have right now.

______________________________________

References:

(1) American Enterprise Institute. COVID-19 Action Tracker. https://www.aei.org/covid-2019-action-tracker/ Accessed 3/21/20.

(2) LosAngeles Times. As Beijing claims credit for beating coronavirus, many Chinese are outraged: ‘Fake! It’s all fake!’ https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-09/china-boasts-abroad-of-victory-over-coronavirus-as-quarantine-hotel-collapses-and-domestic-anger-simmers Accessed 3/21/20.

(3) New York Times. A Timeline of the Coronavirus. https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-timeline.html. Accessed 3/21/20.

(4) Johns Hopkins University. Coronavirus Resource Center. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Access 3/21/20.

Category: Uncategorized

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

3 thoughts on “Coronavirus Episode 10: How Long Will the Shutdown Last?

  1. Stacey Kaufman

    Thank you for updating us and ☹️🥺.

  2. Sam

    There is likely a connection between regional N-COVID-19 death rate and Meningococcal vaccination. So far, over 60% of Italian death toll is from Lombardy region in Northern Italy. The media campaign started following 6 deaths due to Meningitis in Lombardy between 2015 and 2017, with a consequent increase in demand for vaccination. The Regional Committee of Lombardy approved a new vaccination campaign against meningitis with a co-payment system for adults (1). It’s a known fact that concomitant administration of the Meningococcal vaccine and certain other vaccines (e.g . N1H1 or HPV) is a recipe for disaster (2).
    Refs:
    (1) Meningococcal disease in Italy: public concern, media coverage and policy change – https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-019-7426-5
    (2) Meningitis Vax Tied to Bell’s Palsy Risk – https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2017/01/10/meningococcal-vaccination-linked-to-bells-palsy.aspx

Chris Centeno, MD

Regenexx Founder

Chris Centeno, MD is a specialist in regenerative medicine and the new field of Interventional Orthopedics. Centeno pioneered orthopedic stem cell procedures in 2005 and is responsible for a large amount of the published research on stem cell use for orthopedic applications.
View Profile

Get Blog Updates by Email

Get fresh updates and insights from Regenexx delivered straight to your inbox.

By submitting the form, you are agreeing that you read and consent to our Privacy Policy. We may also contact you via email, phone, and other electronic means to communicate information about our products and services. We do not sell, or share your information to third party vendors. Your submitted information is used only for the purposes of providing you with information about Regenexx.

Find a Regenexx Provider

Regenexx is a world-wide network of specially trained physicians providing the world's most advanced, research-driven, regenerative-medicine treatments in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Australia.

Regenerative procedures are commonly used to treat musculoskelatal trauma, overuse injuries, and degenerative issues, including failed surgeries.
Select Your Problem Area
Shoulder

Shoulder

Many Shoulder and Rotator Cuff injuries are good candidates for regenerative treatments. Before considering shoulder arthroscopy or shoulder replacement, consider an evaluation of your condition with a regenerative treatment specialist.

  • Rotator Cuff Tears and Tendinitis
  • Shoulder Instability
  • SLAP Tear / Labral Tears
  • Shoulder Arthritis
  • Other Degenerative Conditions & Overuse Injuries
Learn More
Cervical Spine

Spine

Many spine injuries and degenerative conditions are good candidates for regenerative treatments and there are a number of studies showing promising results in treating a wide range of spine problems. Spine surgery should be a last resort for anyone, due to the cascade of negative effects it can have on the areas surrounding the surgery. And epidural steroid injections are problematic due to their long-term negative impact on bone density.

  • Herniated, Bulging, Protruding Discs
  • Degenerative Disc Disease
  • SI Joint Syndrome
  • Sciatica
  • Pinched Nerves and General Back Pain
  • And more
Learn More
Knee

Knees

Knees are the target of many common sports injuries. Sadly, they are also the target of a number of surgeries that research has frequently shown to be ineffective or minimally effective. Knee arthritis can also be a common cause for aging athletes to abandon the sports and activities they love. Regenerative procedures can be used to treat a wide range of knee injuries and conditions. They can even be used to reduce pain and delay knee replacement for more severe arthritis.

  • Knee Meniscus Tears
  • Knee ACL Tears
  • Knee Instability
  • Knee Osteoarthritis
  • Other Knee Ligaments / Tendons & Overuse Injuries
  • And more
Learn More
Lower Spine

Spine

Many spine injuries and degenerative conditions are good candidates for regenerative treatments and there are a number of studies showing promising results in treating a wide range of spine problems. Spine surgery should be a last resort for anyone, due to the cascade of negative effects it can have on the areas surrounding the surgery. And epidural steroid injections are problematic due to their long-term negative impact on bone density.

  • Herniated, Bulging, Protruding Discs
  • Degenerative Disc Disease
  • SI Joint Syndrome
  • Sciatica
  • Pinched Nerves and General Back Pain
  • And more
Learn More
Hand & Wrist

Hand & Wrist

Hand and wrist injuries and arthritis, carpal tunnel syndrome, and conditions relating to overuse of the thumb, are good candidates for regenerative treatments. Before considering surgery, consider an evaluation of your condition with a regenerative treatment specialist.
  • Hand and Wrist Arthritis
  • Carpal Tunnel Syndrome
  • Trigger Finger
  • Thumb Arthritis (Basal Joint, CMC, Gamer’s Thumb, Texting Thumb)
  • Other conditions that cause pain
Learn More
Elbow

Elbow

Most injuries of the elbow’s tendons and ligaments, as well as arthritis, can be treated non-surgically with regenerative procedures.

  • Golfer’s elbow & Tennis elbow
  • Arthritis
  • Ulnar collateral ligament wear (common in baseball pitchers)
  • And more
Learn More
Hip

Hip

Hip injuries and degenerative conditions become more common with age. Do to the nature of the joint, it’s not quite as easy to injure as a knee, but it can take a beating and pain often develops over time. Whether a hip condition is acute or degenerative, regenerative procedures can help reduce pain and may help heal injured tissue, without the complications of invasive surgical hip procedures.

  • Labral Tear
  • Hip Arthritis
  • Hip Bursitis
  • Hip Sprain, Tendonitis or Inflammation
  • Hip Instability
Learn More
Foot & Ankle

Foot & Ankle

Foot and ankle injuries are common in athletes. These injuries can often benefit from non-surgical regenerative treatments. Before considering surgery, consider an evaluation of your condition with a regenerative treatment specialist.
  • Ankle Arthritis
  • Plantar fasciitis
  • Ligament sprains or tears
  • Other conditions that cause pain
Learn More

Is Regenexx Right For You?

Request a free Regenexx Info Packet

REGENEXX WEBINARS

Learn about the #1 Stem Cell & Platelet Procedures for treating arthritis, common joint injuries & spine pain.

Join a Webinar

RECEIVE BLOG ARTICLES BY EMAIL

Get fresh updates and insights from Regenexx delivered straight to your inbox.

Subscribe to the Blog

CONTACT US

9035 Wadsworth Pkwy #1000
Westminster, CO 80021
888-525-3005

FOLLOW US

Copyright © Regenexx 2020. All rights reserved. | Privacy Policy

*DISCLAIMER: Like all medical procedures, Regenexx® Procedures have a success and failure rate. Patient reviews and testimonials on this site should not be interpreted as a statement on the effectiveness of our treatments for anyone else.

Providers listed on the Regenexx website are for informational purposes only and are not a recommendation from Regenexx for a specific provider or a guarantee of the outcome of any treatment you receive.

Subscribe here!

For more coronavirus updates and hard facts by Dr. Centeno.

You have Successfully Subscribed!

LinkedIn
Email